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Fantasy Football Librarian
| - Gearing up for rankings season
My dad has gone completely bananas and has dedicated an extensive amount of time and energy over the past several day to researching our various family lineages online. I've got all sorts of fascinating characters in my family history - politicians, vaudeville actors, Amish, town founders, poets - and I didn't anticipate finding any of it as interesting as I do. But perhaps I should have been more prepared for that since as all fantasy football buffs know, a look back in time can really be quite informative. Today we've got a growing number of rankings being published and even more are en route with August just around the corner. Several of you have asked if I'll be pulling together another average rankings position spreadsheet as I did in past years, and yes, I will be! I'll be posting the first set of average rankings around August 10-15th or so and will update it at the end of the month. I know many of you found it to be a useful tool for draft day so here's hoping it will help again for the 2010 season.
Let's get to today's links:
- Like I said, we've got a handful of rankings out there my friends...
- The Fifth Down's Sablich brothers are back at it for the season - scope out their QB thoughts in Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks.
- Fighting Chance Fantasy has an extensive treatise chock full of RB rankings. Seriously, this article is lengthy so settle into your seat before you click.
- ProFootballWeekly.com's positional rankings are up, including all offensive skill positions, plus a team defense rankings, and a top 100 overall ranking.
- Not really a ranking but almost better really since it's an Aggregate ADP list. Love it, Razzball, thank you. Note that Razzball's analysis of the varying ADPs from 3 top sites is still to come, but this is a deep list (189 players) of current average draft positions.
- Speaking of ADP analysis, if you're an IDP guy or gal, then you might find it helpful to check out IDP Guru's IDP ADP Analysis: Defensive Linemen, which compares publicized ADPs for DLs to the IDP Guru's own rankings...and then a look at those players where the Guru and ADP differ significantly.
- In case you could have possibly missed the big news today, Terrell Owens is a Bengal and Pancake Blocks has us covered with what this might mean from a fantasy perspective.
- I'm digging Roto Arcade's Spin Doctors series and this look at Bears WRs Devin Aromashodu vs Johnny Knox plays up the likely fantasy Martz magic in Chicago this season.
- Sports Buff is nearly halfway through their team-by-team breakdowns and conveniently enough look at the Bears today to see which players you should focus on come draft day. Happy Bears-ing with these last two links!
- In case it isn't obvious with the way I gush over his material, I am a huge Matt Waldman fan and have been following his Weekly Gut Check column for years. So of course I was pleased to see his post on The Fifth Down (the more places to find Waldman = better) that pokes and prods a bit at the Stud RB Drafting Strategy in Running Back Turnover and How It Affects Your Fantasy Draft.
- Finally, an article on RotoTimes.com, FF Roundtable: Undervalued Tight Ends, queried a bunch of Fanball staff FF smarties to find out which TEs are undervalued going into the 2010 season. Read on to find out why there's a lot of Zach Miller love from the Fanball experts.
 
| - Summer camp fun begins
Training camp! The time has finally come! I know I've linked to this list of training camp dates before but it seems more relevant now that the end of July is here. So check out FFToolbox's list to know when each team gets the training camp ball rolling - that is, if they haven't already.
- On the training camp note, Rotoworld has a nice Training camp preview: Position Battles article. Reasons to like it? They note which battles are worth caring about it and which aren't - plus the section on battles they've already analyzed frequently includes links to Rotoworld's relevant posts/articles from earlier in the offseason.
- Or scope out the Fifth Down's Five Big Questions Heading Into Training Camp, which has a quick look at several key concerns in NFL land.
- Last week I tried to make it to the Sirius XM's celebrity fantasy draft here in Times Square but sadly couldn't quite make it to a middle-of-the-work-day draft. But I was intrigued since some dudes I know like Scott Engel from Rotoexperts.com were participating, along with oh Maurice Jones-Drew. Nice. For the results of the draft, check out this link from Sirius.
- Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy takes inspiration from the well-known Crank Scores (consistency rank) from one of my favorite sites, FFToday.com, and delves a bit deeper into the question of whether one should focus on drafting "better" players versus consistent players.
- Right now the only free component of FFXtreme's 2010 Draft Kit are the player projections, which can be found here. But the good news is that I have two draft kits to give away for free - I love it when I can do this! So the first two people to e-mail me with the answer to the following trivia question will be put in touch with my buddy Smitty at FFXtreme to set up access to a free draft kit for the season. Question: Based on ESPN standard scoring, who were the top 5 fantasy tight ends for the 2009 season? It's an interesting mix of dudes if I do say so... Update: after overwhelming interest (my inbox is going nuts!), I have my two winners and will be contacting them soon. Stay tuned for more contests in the future!
- Finally, on another 2009 stats note, FantasyPros911 charts the Top 100 Targeted WRs for Fantasy Football from last season based on a targets per game average. Just a stats refresher, particularly for those of you in PPR leagues.
| - FInding the unexpected bonus
So one of the perks to our new apartment is the stunning view out the window - we look west from Brooklyn towards the Statue of Liberty and can see some pretty glorious sunsets. As we were unpacking our remaining moving boxes earlier tonight (only 4 more to go!), I just felt incredibly lucky to have found a place with such a stellar view, since it really wasn't something on our must-haves list when apartment searching. Just a bonus. Kind of like when you draft a running back who is a surprisingly adept receiver or a QB whose rushing TDs lead you to a win week in and week out. And really, that's at least one reason why we're all here, right? To see if we can get the edge on finding players with a sweet, unexpected bonus. On that note, let's get to tonight's links:- Ask the Commish, who has done quite well over the past few years with fantasy rankings (see the series on my rankings accuracy analysis), has updated their rankings in time for the start of training camp. With such a successful past with rankings, I highly recommend scoping out what they have pulled together for 2010.
- Here's another set of RB rankings you might want to scope out - Rotoprofessor's Top 40 Running Backs for 2010: Take Two. Or how about Mac Bros' top 75 running back rankings (other positions can be linked to from the navigation links at the top of the page).
- Yahoo's Roto Arcade dukes out the benefits of Michael Crabtree vs Mike Sims-Walker in Spin Doctors. I'm siding with MSW here, thanks in large part to my love for Gore but also my uncertainty about Alex Smith. Perhaps I should have more doubt in Garrard though really...how about you all?
- Earlier this week the IDP Guru posted his IDP sleepers for 2010 - you'll likely find some new names as well as some guys who have been around for awhile now; nice mix.
- KFFL has a thorough running back handcuff chart that should get your mind thinking about some deep players that should be on your radar. It's really quite interesting to compare teams like the Cowboys or the Falcons with three names that every fantasy player knows, versus teams like the Vikings and the Titans that are stacked with not only their top RB but 4 other backs at this time.
- The Hazean brings us a list of backup RBs that you'll want to be aware of on draft day - Beware These 11 Touchdown Vultures.
- The FFManiaxs offer up both 2010 breakouts and 2010 busts. I'll be honest, I don't agree with some of these but I always think it pays to read why others are high/low on players.
- Finally, a little something fun and not really about football at all - Razzball recently conducted a Draught Beer Draft and while I'm sad I wasn't called upon to participate, it does remind me of all the delicious beer awaiting me post-pregnancy. I'm really more of an amber/red beer fan, which I know isn't quite as revered in beer circles as hoppier beers, but there are definitely some brews on this list I wouldn't mind trying - really there's something for everyone in this draught draft.
| - Feeling particularly lucky
Happy birthday to the best guy I've ever met: my awesome husband. Without getting all sappy on you guys (it's really sad but those iPhone 4 commercials are making me tear up these days; blame it on the pregnancy thing!), it's truly an honor being married to such a great dude and every day I'm reminded of how lucky I am to have found this guy. And of course since he's the one that introduced me to this crazy world of fantasy football, let's all raise a glass to the birthday dude!
Now moving on from the husband lovefest to the ff linkfest...
- If you're in the mood for a handful of sleepers, try 72 of them. Yeah that's right, 72, all with a bit of a write-up from the guys at DynastyLeagueFootball.com. And there are some nice, super deep ones here that should satisfy those of you in the deepest of dynasty leagues in particular.
- I must say I look forward to Matthew Berry/The Talented Mr. Roto's Love/Hate column every summer. He does of course carry on this list with a weekly assessment of players he, well, loves and hates that week - but this one always seems to signal the close proximity of the season to me. Plus he's a Frank Gore fan this year and I love me some Gore.
- I hear from a lot of you who seem to appreciate playing around with players stats, including historical stats, so I wanted to make sure you all know that Football Outsiders is offering up a free spreadsheet with standard stats from 2007-2009 for all skill players. So have it, concoct some crazy notions or pull together some interesting patterns over the past 3 seasons.
- If you're curious about the value of some players stuck in RBBC situations, ProFootballWeekly.com takes a look at some Fantasy position battles: RBs to gauge which player might have the fantasy upper hand.
- Meanwhile, NFL Soup has their top 40 running back rankings available - now I've definitely seen other sites/rankings suggest MJD should go earlier than 3rd overall, but I do enjoy the Soup's insistence that Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson are really your only options with the first 2 picks.
- Finally, my guest posts here from Fantasyomatic.com have looked a lot at strength of schedule issues for 2010. I appreciate all of the tweaking that Fantasyomatic.com has done to adjust the 2009 defensive rankings though also appreciate Razzball's point in Strength of Rush Defense, 2010 Schedule that there's really no way of knowing what 2010 will bring defensively. I fall somewhere in the middle I think and so I like offering up both the modified SOS thoughts from Fantasyomatic, as well as the straight 2009 defense numbers converted to the 2010 schedule as Razzball has done.
| - Guest post: TEs and Fantasy Points Against
Good evening, fantasy football fans. Tonight we have the third installment in a series of guest posts from Cris at Fantasyomatic.com. To catch up on what he's doing here with the series, scope out the first paragraph - otherwise, skip to the meat of the guest post to find out which team TEs are ranked in the top 3 Fantasy Points Against Strength.
Fantasyomatic Fantasy Points Against
Welcome to part three in a series of draft prep articles leading up to training camp (read part one - WR here and part two - QB here). This week the focus is on fantasy TEs. We ranked all 32 teams based on their Fantasy Points Against Strength with a breakdown on each team and profile of each TE candidate. You will also find helpful information on 2009 Yards Per Attempt, 2010 Strength of Schedule and 2010 Fantasy Playoff schedules. Don't worry about Fantasy Points Against (FPA) data here being grabbed just from 2009; the algorithm used here at Fantasyomatic.com has been hard at work cranking out "defensive ranking against fantasy position" projections all spring. The FPA values you see here include 2010 adjustments for the draft additions, free agency additions, coaching changes in the offseason, defensive scheme updates, daily fantasy news updates and up to the day depth charts. In addition, the FPA values are also weighted against their strength of opponents in 2009 and then again against their strength of opponents in 2010.
What to look for: Players with high yards per pass attempt (YPA) and trends of low FPA ranks against especially during weeks 14-16 (fantasy playoffs). A good combination of low ADP and a high rank in FPA with a lot of involvement in the offense = value. Also watch for mentions of a high red zone score percentage (RZS%), which denotes a TE that's involved in a lot of red zone scoring.
For rankings beyond 1-3, see the full article here on Fantasyomatic.com.
1. Washington Redskins (FPA score: 81.9)
Key Players:
Chris Cooley (YPA 8.3) ADP: 113 - 42% of 46
Fred Davis (YPA 7.4) ADP: 215 - 42% of 46
Outlook:
The Redskins threw the 13th most yards to TEs in 2009, but now Mike and Kyle Shanahan are in town and they brought in a QB in Donovan McNabb who has made his living throwing to TEs. Last year McNabb threw 969 passing yards and 8 TDs to TEs, and WAS threw 850 yards and 11 TDs. Washington had the league's second highest TE RZS% (46% of all their Red Zone TDs went to TEs). Kyle Shanahan drew up enough plays to TEs in Houston last season to total 912 yds and 6 TDs. Mike Shanahan's last two Denver teams posted 38 passes: 24 runs and then 32 passes: 26 runs per game, which is a higher pass to rush ratio then most people may think. These certainly appear to be good indicators for McNabb and his pass catchers. Chris Cooley "may see an expanded role in the offense" according to the Washington Post. Cooley presents some risk, but Washington may have to rely heavily on him due to their thin WR situation. There is danger of a timeshare here since Fred Davis really took advantage of his opportunities when Cooley was out last year. Davis comes with a much cheaper 17th round price tag while Cooley is a 9th rounder. Cooley is much cheaper than your Clark (4th), Witten (5th), and Gates (4th) types so if you miss on one of those, feel good about taking Cooley as a low risk/high reward option. He has a stretch of 5 out of 6 games against bottom-end teams leading into your fantasy playoffs.
2. Minnesota Vikings (FPA score: 81.9)
Key Players:
Visanthe Shiancoe (YPA 7.4) ADP: 120 - 30% of 69
Outlook:
Visanthe Shiancoe was one of the NFL's leading red zone target TEs in 2009 while Minnesota tied for 1st in the NFL in TE TDs (13), of which Shiancoe had 11. He also scored 7 of those TDs inside the 10 yard line. Minnesota had the 6th highest TE RZS% (30% of all Red Zone TDs went to TEs). No reason to think that will change with Brett Favre coming back for another year, however, if Favre somehow decides not to come back, remember that Shiancoe scored the third most TDs of all TEs in 2008 (7 TDs) even without Favre. He has slightly less value in a PPR league as he was only 12th in TE targets in 2009 but TD leagues value him even higher. The biggest value for Shiancoe in 2010 is his stellar fantasy playoff matchups. MIN has the #1 fantasy schedule of all TEs in the NFL. They play the Giants, Bears and Eagles and those three franchises have been some of the consistently worst defenses against opposing TEs for the past two years. Shiancoe can be had in the 10th round so it's safe to say you could get a potential top-10 TE well after you already locked down your starters in all other positions. That's a great value for a red zone beast like Shiancoe.
3. Houston Texans (FPA score: 84.3)
Key Players:
Owen Daniels (YPA 10.0) ADP: 87 - 12% of 63
Outlook:
If Owen Daniels had been able to finish the 2009 season, he was on pace for a career-best 89 catches for 1,136 yards and 11 TDs. That would have been good enough to outscore Dallas Clark. Instead, a week 8 ACL injury sent him to the sidelines. Fantasyomatic.com had a chance to speak with Owen Daniels this offseason and he said everything went "very smoothly" with his surgery. Houston grabbed another TE from Wisconsin, Garrett Graham, in the NFL draft as a little insurance in case Daniels cannot come back fully from his torn ACL. If he does, he will be in a rare group of players who were able to overcome such an injury. Plus, Daniels' fantasy success has a lot to do with his ability to get downfield so he will need strong wheels to be the O.D. of old. Daniels had a YPA of 10.0 in 2009 and a 13.0 Yards Per Catch and had the third highest Yards After the Catch of all TEs last year. The old O.D. is worth being excited about. You've gotta love a red zone TE, and although HOU threw to the TE in only 12% of their 63 Red Zone possessions, Daniels saw more red zone targets in 2009 than in his entire 16 game 2008 season. If he can come back healthy, he has a great season to look forward to in 2010, plus Houston has the 3rd easiest schedule for TEs in 2010. He has a late-season run with 7 out of 8 games against bottom-half defenses against TEs. Thanks to his ACL issues, he's going in the early 7th round of summer drafts, and if you can get him there, you should have strong TE1 value if Daniels stays healthy.
| - Weekend catch up
Ahh, there's absolutely nothing like having a big move behind you. Of course the 20 or so boxes in our new living room might indicate there's still plenty of work to do, not to mention the slow transition going on for our freaked out cats, but I feel a great deal of relief to have the bulk of this move completed. Perhaps the most awesome part about th move? The realization that we now have both the NFL Network and the Big Ten Network (go Wildcats!). Fantastic. All of Brooklyn is invited to watch games at our place this fall with a brand new infant. Hot times, right?
So now that I can catch my breath a bit (ha, actually not so much what with the growing belly making it harder to breathe...but you know what I mean), I'm catching up on some of the latest FF links out there and have some good stuff for you:
- The freebies on Footballguys.com are coming to an end soon (I think July 15 might have been the cutoff for most content) so I highly recommend you read up on whatever free material they offer since this is FBG we're talking about. Take a look at The Ten Players to Build Around in 2010, where Dodds includes a player's value point, ADP, and where he hopes to draft the player along with the writeup. Good read.
- While I'm on FBG I'll just quickly note that their Rate My Team function is up and running. I know a lot of you really enjoyed this product last year and found it interesting at the very least, so I recommend scoping out the 2010 version onc
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